It's a very Big Deal. With the attempted assassination on the Slovakian prime minister, we think there's a case to be made that the world has slipped deeper into a WW-1 Replay, a Weimar-like Inflation, and an economic Depression, all rolled into a new and (2024)

It’s a very Big Deal. With the attempted assassination on the Slovakian prime minister, we think there’s a case to be made that the world has slipped deeper into a WW-1 Replay, a Weimar-like Inflation, and an economic Depression, all rolled into a new and improved version of Humans Are Stupid, Gold Edition.

Let’s see what foreshadows of the future are telling us about it’s coming arrival.

First, to the condition of the shooting victim, Robert Fico, it’s still touch-and-go: Slovakia prime minster’s condition stabilized after shooting, deputy says.

The problem with the shooting is that it increases the odds of a WW-1 era event-cluster. The highlights of which included a pandemic (Spanish Flu), trench warfare, the U.S. getting directly involved in the European ground war long-after the assassination of archduke Ferdinand June 28, 1914.

The Library of Congress Highlights

Those of us who seriously study “the Future” have generally learned that looking back – to look ahead – is sometimes a wise thing. Take, for example, how World War 1 fired up. We will cite the Library of Congress here.

• June 28, 1914 – the assassination of the Archduke. He was the head of Austria – which is important to note in passing.
• In the aftermath, it came to be known that the perp was The perpetrator was 19-year-old Gavrilo Princip, a member ofYoung Bosniaand one of a group of assassins organized and armed by theBlack Hand.
• The Black Hand was a Serbian outfit. And the Wiki on it explains that “The society formed to unite all of the territories with aSouth Slavicmajority that were not then ruled by eitherSerbiaorMontenegro. It took inspiration primarily from theunification of Italyin 1859–1870, but also from theunification of Germany in 1871.” Bet you can see where this leads? Shade of Crimea?
• July 28, 1914 – exactly a month later – Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, beginning World War I.
• Three weeks later, August 2 through 7 of 1914, the sh*t hit the proverbial fan. As “Germany invades Luxembourg and Belgium. France invaded Alsace. British forces arrive in France. Nations allied against Germany were eventually to include Great Britain, Russia, Italy, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Rhodesia, Romania, Greece, France, Belgium, United States, Canada, Serbia, India, Portugal, Montenegro, and Poland.

If you have been following the (brilliant) work of G.A. Stewart on The Age of Desolation website, you hopefully saw his latest post about “The Butcher King of England” Because as the modern analog to the events of 100-years ago roll out, we not only see how everyone got dragged into the earlier conflict, but we can see how the same “power players” (England, Germany, Russia, and eastern Europe) all got wrapped around the axle.

The key date from these opening salvoes of WW-1 came the following week. When Austria-Hungary (still pissed about the assassination) invaded Russia.

Close-In Modern Analog

Although expected to live now, the attempt in modern times on the leader of Slovakia may set up a similar invasion effort. Except it would be an attack on Russia by NATO. Recall that Slovakia became a member of NATO on 29 March 2004 and of the European Union on 1 May 2004.

In our puzzle-piece fitment then, we would expect Slovakia-NATO to go after the source of the shooting. Which brings us to the modern-day perp:

“Slovakian media has identified the shooter as 71-year-old Juraj Cintula, a self-described writer who previously worked as a security guard and is allegedly linked to pro-Russian group Slovaki branci.”

Or, is he just a patsy?

Ian Miles Cheong on X: “You don’t hate journalists enough. Sky News justifies the shooting of Slovakian PM Robert Fico by calling it a “very unhappy” country that’s headed towards a “more authoritarian future.” In other words, they’re happy he was shot because Fico is a populist, not a globalist. https://t.co/KCTvama4cR” / X (twitter.com)

Now, we know that NATO is itching for a fight – and we would not be surprised to see the alphabet folks behind the curtain somewhere, because there’s an election coming to America this fall and someone in an Oval needs a high horse to get on. (Or a cause to put the election on hold which wasn’t done even in WW2 – but you know how people in power love their powers…)

The only thing not certain is the timing. Estimates only, because while positions and players may be similar, timing will vary.

From the shooting date, we could expect a major NATO backed involvement in support of Ukraine to take place inside a month, call it. Before June 15th. Strike while the pretext is hot? So, it would fit (in coming weeks) if we find this “writer” figure had times to either Ukraine movements or some link to non-Russians in the Crimea. Open to the fine print being off there, however.

On the other hand, did you see where U.S. military official ADMITS British commandos are operating covertly in Ukraine?

Three weeks to a month later, we would then see the fighting carried across the Russian frontier. Middle of July? That’s when NostradamusKing of Terror in July could slide in. (Watch Stu’s columns for fitment details.)

Let’s go back into the Library of Congress again and see what happens next if we’re on the Replay Road..

History Ahead?

September 9, 1914 – call it three months from the Archduke shooting – Allied forces halt German advance into France during First Battle of the Marne.

Since history always “goes in the blender” in order not to betoo easily discerned, we figure that Russia will be cast in the German role in modern times.

Mindful of this, three months from now – middle of August? – we could then see a real pitched (conventional) battle along the Ukraine front spearheaded by Slovakia (a riff being the modern assassination attempt), with the modern Germany being an ally (in NATO) [this is a “historical blender effect”] and all the while life in America rolls along just as it did in WW-1’s early going.

Market Impacts?

This is really interesting, too. The Archduke was killed on a Sunday, so the U.S. Dow wasn’t available until Monday June 29,1914. The close that day? Our records (which may not be precise) point to 58.6052.

When the warring ramped up a month later, the Dow was still holding 55.88 on July 28, 1914, so pretty steady. 4.6 percent declines happen.

On the other hand, the Dow stocks of America were not a bad place to be with Europe on fire. In fact, when we entered WW-1 on April 6, 1917 (a Sunday) the Dow closed the following day at 93.1,

It is possible the U.S. market could have a similar rally prior to engaging directly with Russia (which is reprising Germany’s role of WW1, remember)?

Hard telling. But in aperfect replay, the S&P would hit 8,478 before nukes flash.

Circling Back to Stu’s Work

We have to then consider how long it took Germany (in WW1) to strike at England. Because we expect Russia is still fuming about the Brits role in taking out the Nordstream gas pipeline(s).

In WW-1, February 18th of 1915 Germany begins naval blockade of Great Britain. Obviously, in this spin of the historical battle, Russia may simply use one of its nuclear torpedoes; that’s a leading theory in war, conspiracy, and futuring hangouts.

Two points to be made here: Russia may not have the nearly 8-months of patience that Germany had in WW-1.

Driving their (seething anger level) animosity is the British backing of Ukraine and the West’s general disinterest in allowing Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine to join what amount to historical countrymen. In fact, British (and American) arms sales might halve the time to attack on England which would set up on this fall.

You have only to study the other moving pieces in addition to the article “The Butcher King of England”

This is all incredibly speculative, but nevertheless, in the land of the blind, a one-eyed man seems omnipotent.

The timelines run at different speeds, of course, but this is where the spiral calendar work of Chris Carolan is so valuable. His 1996 book “The Spiral Calendar and Its Effect on Financial Markets and Human Events” is both speculative about timing, but he does teach spiral calendar a good bit, and we don’t make it past this year whole.

Final Note – Foreign Inflation Effects

As long as I hauled out my historical data sets, let’s see if the hyperinflation in Germany (post WW1) rippled to America, shall we?

Going from about March of 1921 to the end of 1923, the German Mark went from 10 to 1-trillion. The classical hyperinflation such as Zimbabwe went through.

The U.S. Dow from March of 1921 at 74.71 to 95.52 on the final trading session of 1923. While that was a damn good gain, it was actually even better because the Fed data implies a five percent net deflation in that period, which boosted the purchasing power of a 28.37 percent gain and additional five percent on currency purchasing power increasing.

Good things happen, you see, when the victors get their spoils.

Key outlook: NATO forces into Ukraine in the next 30-60 days and googles on before summer ends. Timing to be driven by claims of Russian involvement in events in Eastern Europe.

Daily Data Dump

Let’s line ’em up. Starting with Housing Starts.

Building Permits
Privately?owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,440,000. This is 3.0 percent below the revised March rate of 1,485,000 and is 2.0 percent below the April 2023 rate of 1,470,000.
Housing Starts
Privately?owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,360,000. This is 5.7 percent (±11.0 percent)* above the revised March estimate of 1,287,000, but is 0.6 percent (±12.3 percent)* below the April 2023 rate of 1,368,000. Single?family housing starts in April were at a rate of 1,031,000; this is 0.4 percent (±9.5
percent)* below the revised March figure of 1,035,000.

Bottom line? People are being priced – and interest-rated – out of new homes.

From there, we’re off to,,,

Import and Export Prices…

Weaker dollar – initially good for markets – is turning to bite us on the butt.

U.S. imports increased 0.9 percent in April, after advancing 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel and nonfuel import prices contributed to the overall rise. Prices for U.S. exports increased 0.5 percent in April following a 0.1-percent advance the previous month.

Imports

The price index for U.S. imports advanced 0.9 percent in April, the largest 1-month increase since the index rose 2.9 percent in March 2022. Prices for U.S. imports last declined on a monthly basis in December 2023. Import prices advanced 1.1 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year increase since December 2022.

Exports

U.S. export prices rose 0.5 percent in April following a 0.1-percent advance in March.

And no mid-month is complete without the…

Philly Fed outlook:

“The diffusion index for current general activity remained positive but declined 11 points to 4.5 in May, mostly undoing its increase from last month (see Chart). More than 29 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (down from 38 percent last month), while 25 percent reported decreases (up from 22 percent); 46 percent reported no change (up from 40 percent). The index for new orders declined from 12.2 to -7.9, its first negative reading since February, and the shipments index fell from 19.1 to -1.2, its first negative reading since January.”

We are still shocked and appalled at the lack of thunder from the sucky Retail Sales figures Wednesday showing no growth in sales. Maybe not everyone can read these days.

New Unemployment Filings

Ahead of the open, stocks were trying to hold small gains.

War Fronts

War in Ukraine’s north hots up: Russia transfers thousands of troops to Belarus: Artillery barrage and mine clearance in Chernigov and Sumy!

Looks like Rafah will be hot this weekend, as well: Israeli army sends additional brigade to Gaza’s Rafah amid offensive,.

With 45 Chinese aircraft up yesterday, the change of government in Taiwan continues on schedule: Chinese cyberattacks against Taiwan surge ahead of presidential inauguration. We’re also wondering how this happened: TSMC Arizona Construction Site Blast Kills Truck Driver – BNN Bloomberg.

Variously

We continue crypto skeptical for a reason: Exclusive-North Korea laundered $147.5 million in stolen crypto in March, say UN experts (yahoo.com)

Yes, ballot box stuffing is coming: Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registering to Vote Ahead of November Elections, Study Finds.

Meantime, the commies have a new scam rolling to stuff outcomes: Communists Cheer Ranked-Choice Voting’s Anti-Conservative Slant (thefederalist.com) Not Constitutional as far as we can tell, but that doesn’t matter anymore. Kinda like “rights to privacy” which is another ongoing digital knee-slapper…

As if the ballot box isn’t enough, how about stuffing agendas into the FCC? Government FCC Now Forcing Queer And Race Agenda on TV And Radio! Along similar lines: The Tolerant Left Revives Their Push For SEGREGATION?!

Want to know the next front on the political agenda? The Vigilant Fox ? on X: “REPORT: Dr. Peter McCullough says Donald Trump is missing out on the “political opportunity of a lifetime” if he doesn’t dump the COVID shots. He suggests that Trump can throw Fauci under the bus because Fauci’s credibility “is in the tank.” This is all Trump needs to say, https://t.co/YbgZWMylZG” / X (twitter.com)

Democracy leaves Europe – so why are we in NATO? ALERT: EU Wants To Criminalize Migration Speech. “Criticism of migration will become a criminal offence” “And media outlets that give room to criticism of migration can be SHUT DOWN”.

Around the Ranch: Statistical Bullsh*t Outed

Don’t mean to pick onNewsweek here, but when you have an MBA and you’re an old man, sometimes it’s a personal “Call of Duty” to point out misleading (so-called) “news” stories.

Newsweek triggered me with their statistical insufficiency in the story States With the Most Homeless People | Best States | U.S. News (usnews.com)

This (sadly) is typical incomplete reporting that’s all over the web in general. Because (if you are too busy with real life to consider such matters) the population of all states is different. Such that if homeless is your metric, for deciding where to live for example, then per capita is the right measuring stick. Not a simplistic tent-check.

See, the order of rank (high to low) in the article was California, New York, Florida, Washington, Texas, Oregon, Massachusetts, Colorado, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. That’s true, but only on the most superficial nose-count basis. Two of the top 5 were red states. But that’s not reality. Grab that data shovel and follow me.

When you are Truth-seeking, you take a claim like this and hold it up to the light. Which we did by plugging in state populations to get anapproximate per capita number which is a hell of a lot more pertinent here in Reality.

Guess which party panders to homeless most? Colors have been added as prompts.

It doesn’t appear the Newsweek story was intended as a cover-up of liberal support for homelessness. However, libs appear to be enablers, not fixers. On a percentage – per capita basis, Florida’s homeless problem is one third that of New York, Oregon, or California.

Put another way, in New York, one person out of 196 is homeless. In Florida, one person out of 699 and in Texas it’s like one person in 1063.

What the libs don’t realize is that this leads to an effect we call “tax compression.” Because the (non-homeless) have to pay more in NY, CA, etc. to pay the expenses of non-workers. If I were consulting a drug cartel (I don’t, of course) I would look at the homeless market and focus on the blue states. Not enough homeless camps in Texas, yet. but they cartels are working on that – especially around Houston. Homeless can vote often, too, with very little incentivizing.

As I point out in one of my books (on thePeoplenomicsside) we have a massive economic issue coming towards us that the greenhuggers haven’t talked about: Namely the matter of planned obsolescence which collides in the future with the evolving notions of Capitalism.

You simply can’t have it both ways: Green or Hyper consumption. Gotta pick ONE. Poor quality goods that don’t last is an anti-Green as you can get. Said the guy living in a 35-year old mobile home with 40 solar panels. Voluntary down-scaling is the Future. And someone has to go first.,

The bottom line is you can’t have a growth economy and keep making things that wear out. But when you make long-term lifecycle quality goods, you have to do something with the leftover people resources who used to be employed making *crap quality” excess goods for needless consumption, except that was a dandy scam bringing financialization to the Ownership class. Who then buy our freedom (and country) out from under us. See, they can pay the party that wants to stuff ballot boxes…and the circularity is complete.

The Left has embraced the homeless (they get the victim angle, for sure). But, they haven’t addressed this looming robotics meets AI economic nightmare which is how the numbers blow up on the way to that kind of world. Homelessness is just a breeze before the storm of upheaval. If you saw the future like we do, you’d be hiding out in the woods and getting as self-sufficient as you could, too – instantly.

The proposition in my book (The 100-Year Toaster) is the old system is, as my friend Kit Webster put it, is past its “Sell-By Date.” We need a whole rethink of the planet. But not by greedsters like the WEF or the Davosians, though. They have only taken the problem as far as a power grab and have failed to present a viable alternative structural framework for the thousand years of peace on Earth. We get one more war, first, looks like.

In that wake of that, Muslims are right – get rid of interest. Take money away from the Bankster class and return to “hard money” as the Constitution demands. Limit consumer debt to a small fraction of personal income. Grow some food at home, it’s OK to drive a 20-year-old car, too. Our old Lexus turns 20 this fall.

Interest – rent on money – is the glue that makes banksters rich. Financialization resulting are great – and look at Ukraine to see how they support the War model. Haven’t we learned anything?

Any touted “replacement” will be less honest than even the New Deal in the previous Depression. WEF’ers with interest-dependent financializations remaining at just shills of the rich; they are stooges of Davosians.

(Remind me not to get up at 2 AM and start writing tomorrow, would you?)

Write when you get sustainable, equitable, carbon-neutral, self-sufficient, and non-communist in a nonmonetized paradigm. We”ll have another assignment for you tomorrow. Don’t you have number to crunch? I’m on projects in the shop…

George@Ure.net