12:30 p.m. update: Our latest review of model data indicates the potential for some fast-moving, hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms in the D.C. region today, mainly between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m. Since there’s a better chance of more storms, and perhaps more severe storms, the farther south you are, here is our forecast divided into two zones:
Zone A: For areas north of D.C., Interstate 66 and Route 50, the best chance of hit-or-miss showers and storms looks to be from 2 p.m. to 7 p.m. We’ll probably see less showers and storms in this area than farther south, which means it may not even rain in some spots, but an isolated storm could produce a brief period of hail and strong winds, in addition to dangerous lightning.
Zone B: For areas from D.C., Interstate 66 and Route 50 to the south, the best chance of hit-or-miss showers and storms looks to be from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. We’ll probably see more showers and storms in this area than farther north, but some spots could still get missed. There’s also a better chance in this area that a few storms could produce a brief period of hail and strong winds, in addition to dangerous lightning.
Today’s daily digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
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7/10: Probably our warmest day of the workweek, with highs in the 80s for many. Only a tinge of humidity but can’t rule out a few late-day showers and storms.
Express forecast
- Today: Very warm. A few p.m. showers/storms? Highs: Near 80 to mid-80s.
- Tonight: Early-evening shower/storm? Lows: Near 50 to mid-50s.
- Tomorrow: Mainly bright, rain-free. Highs: 72-78.
Forecast in detail
After a summery start to the week today, including the chance of a few showers and storms later in the day, we’ll remain mild and mainly bright through tomorrow. A front dances through our region more than once this week, bringing higher midweek rain chances, although even then, shower coverage is uncertain as of this point. Cooler weather arrives this weekend, and a chance of showers could linger.
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Today (Monday): This is probably our warmest day of the week, with highs near 80 to the mid-80s. It’s a mainly sunny day, but we do have a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms midafternoon into early evening. While we could feel a tinge of humidity, there shouldn’t be a discernible heat index. Breezes from the west gust once or twice, but nothing like in recent days. Confidence: Medium
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Tonight: The chance of a few showers and storms continues into the early evening, then skies trend mostly clear with just a couple of gusts from the north near 15 mph. Temperatures bottom out near 50 to the mid-50s. Confidence: Medium-High
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Tomorrow (Tuesday): Looking rain-free as this week’s front sags well to our southwest. We should have a mainly sunny day as high clouds slowly increase, perhaps filtering the sunshine at times. It’s still warm, though probably less so than on Monday, with comfortable humidity-free high temperatures within a few degrees of 75. Clouds may increase toward evening. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Any showers and storms should hold off until closer to sunrise. Temperatures settle to within a few degrees of 55. Confidence: Medium-High
A look ahead
Partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday bring the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. We could have one pulse of rain in the morning and then a second in the late afternoon, although exact timing and amounts are still a bit uncertain as a front moves again toward our region. Highs could range from the mid-60s to mid-70s depending on cloud and shower coverage. Confidence: Medium
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The humidity remains more noticeable even as we get into Wednesday night, helping keep low temperatures near the balmy 60-degree mark. Shower and storm chances could continue into the night. Confidence: Medium
More clouds than sun Thursday and Friday as showers and even a couple of storms dot the region. Nothing too heavy or long-lasting as of now. We should get to at least around 70 both days, and it could be even warmer with enough sunshine. Confidence: Low-Medium
Cooler 60s may be the best bet for weekend highs, although there’s still a chance that warmer 70s linger into Saturday. Some showers are possible with a front nearby. Nothing too heavy expected as of now, and there’s still time for this forecast to change, so no need to alter weekend plans yet. However, formulating a plan B in the back of your mind isn’t a terrible idea. Confidence: Low
Read more about Capital Weather Gang’s confidence rating
